COPD是一种病程不确定、预后存在差异的疾病。它的预后取决于几个因素,包括遗传易感性、环境暴露、共病和(影响程度较小的)急性加重。
尽管 COPD 合并呼吸衰竭患者的短期存活率取决于急性病的整体严重程度,但长期存活率主要受 COPD 的严重程度和有无合并症影响。通常预后的判断基于 FEV₁,后者是肺功能检查的一部分。一项荟萃回归分析显示,FEV₁ 的增加与 COPD 急性加重的风险降低之间存在显著相关性。[249]Zider AD, Wang X, Buhr RG, et al. Reduced COPD exacerbation risk correlates with improved FEV1: a meta-regression analysis. Chest. 2017 Sep;152(3):494-501.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28483609?tool=bestpractice.com
除了 FEV₁ 以外,其他预测预后的因素为体重(极低体重是不利的预后因素,一项荟萃分析发现低体重指数与 FEV₁ 加速下降之间存在显著相关性)、6 分钟步行距离和活动时呼吸急促的程度。[250]Guo Y, Zhang T, Wang Z, et al. Body mass index and mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a dose-response meta-analysis. Medicine (Baltimore). 2016 Jul;95(28):e4225.
https://journals.lww.com/md-journal/fulltext/2016/07120/Body_mass_index_and_mortality_in_chronic.50.aspx
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27428228?tool=bestpractice.com
[251]Sun Y, Milne S, Jaw JE, et al. BMI is associated with FEV1 decline in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a meta-analysis of clinical trials. Respir Res. 2019 Oct 29;20(1):236.
https://respiratory-research.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12931-019-1209-5
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31665000?tool=bestpractice.com
这些因素称为体重指数、气流阻塞、呼吸困难和运动(Body mass index, airflow Obstruction, Dyspnoea, Exercise,BODE)指数,可为 1 年、2 年和 4 年存活情况的预后评估提供信息。[252]Celli BR, Cote CG, Marin JM, et al. The Body-mass index, airflow Obstruction, Dyspnea, and Exercise capacity index in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. N Engl J Med. 2004 Mar 4;350(10):1005-12.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa021322
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/14999112?tool=bestpractice.com
一项研究显示血浆肾上腺髓质素浓度联合 BODE 指数和单独应用 BODE 指数相比是一项更好的评估预后的工具。[253]Stolz D, Kostikas K, Blasi F, et al. Adrenomedullin refines mortality prediction by the BODE index in COPD: the "BODE-A" index. Eur Respir J. 2014 Feb;43(2):397-408.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23794469?tool=bestpractice.com
在稳定期 COPD 患者中,肾上腺髓质素、精氨酸加压素、心房利钠肽和 C 反应蛋白升高与死亡风险增加相关。[254]Leuzzi G, Galeone C, Taverna F, et al. C-reactive protein level predicts mortality in COPD: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Eur Respir Rev. 2017 Jan 31;26(143):160070.
https://err.ersjournals.com/content/26/143/160070
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28143876?tool=bestpractice.com
[255]Stolz D, Meyer A, Rakic J, et al. Mortality risk prediction in COPD by a prognostic biomarker panel. Eur Respir J. 2014 Dec;44(6):1557-70.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25034566?tool=bestpractice.com
英国指南不建议使用 BODE 指数评估预后。[2]National Institute for Health and Care Excellence. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in over 16s: diagnosis and management. Jul 2019 [internet publication].
https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/ng115
近期,学者们对作为 COPD 病程预测因素的合并症和既往加重给予更多关注。经证明,CODEX 指数(合并症、阻塞、呼吸困难和既往重度加重)在预测 COPD 患者的预后方面优于 BODE 指数。[256]Almagro P, Soriano JB, Cabrera FJ, et al; Working Group on COPD, Spanish Society of Internal Medicine. Short- and medium-term prognosis in patients hospitalized for COPD exacerbation: the CODEX index. Chest. 2014 May;145(5):972-80.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24077342?tool=bestpractice.com
在 COPD 患者中,COPD 频繁加重以及因急性呼吸衰竭需要进行多次气管插管和有创机械通气是预后不良的指标。[257]Gunen H, Hacievliyagil SS, Kosar F, et al. Factors affecting survival of hospitalised patients with COPD. Eur Respir J. 2005 Aug;26(2):234-41.
https://erj.ersjournals.com/content/26/2/234
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16055870?tool=bestpractice.com
在 COPD 多个不同的治疗方法中,只有两个因素可以改善存活情况,即戒烟和氧疗。
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预测慢性阻塞性肺疾病 (COPD) 患者生存期的 BODE 指数
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